Financial hot review / financial supply -side reform improves stability of economic benefits. Zhang Tao, an analyst at the Financial Market Department of China Construction Bank

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  Figure: Mainland financial supply -side reforms need to be accelerated, and commercial banks can get rid of the “expansion trap” as soon as possible to improve financial efficiency.

  Although data such as the per capita consumption volume of the Spring Festival in the Mainland and the growth rate of social retail growth in the first two months show that consumption is still in a slow recovery state, and whether the GDP flat reduction index can be reversed for two consecutive quarters, it is uncertain.From the perspective of data such as industrial production, manufacturing investment, power consumption, and import and export of import and export in the first two months, the improvement of economic operation on the production side is very obvious. Accordingly, we will grow in the first quarter of this year.The expected value is adjusted to more than 5%.However, whether the improvement of economic operation will continue, it will be affected by financial efficiency.

  First of all, there is still a gap between financing speed and economic growth and price targets.Since the Central Economic Work Conference last year, the goal of currency regulation has been converted to “promoting the scale of social financing, the currency supply is matched with the economic growth and the expected target of the price level”, that is, the currency and financing environment focuses on the restoration of the name growth rate of GDP.GDP nominal growth rate can be observed with the total number of actual growth rates and flat reduction indexes. As of the end of last year, the nominal growth rate of GDP was 4.7%, and the social merit and M2 growth rates were 9.5%and 9.7%, respectively.As of the end of February, the growth rates of social finances and M2 have slightly dropped, with 9.0%and 8.7%, respectively. Therefore, due to the improvement of the improvement of economic operations, the currency and financing environment also need to further improve the matching ability.

  Secondly, the currency and financing environment face more constraints.Although economic growth and price recovery require the care of the currency and financing environment, that is, the commercial banking system needs to maintain a certain expansion rate to provide more financial support for the real economy.However, as of the end of February, the asset expansion speed of the commercial banking system has dropped to 34 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) / year, which is the lowest level in the past 15 months, which is more than 38 trillion yuan in March last year /The peak of the year fell by 4.5 trillion yuan.But at the same time, although the speed of asset expansion of the pedestrian assets fell from the level of 4 trillion yuan per year at the end of last year, it is still at a high level (2.8 trillion yuan / year at the end of February), which reflects the expansion of commercial banks.The restrictions on the table come from the supply of bank currency.For example, the net interest difference continues to narrow and the impact of the profitability of commercial banks has accelerated. It is expected that the net interest difference between commercial banks is still declining. At the end of last year, it has fallen to 1.69%.; Capital’s constraint on the continuous expansion of commercial banks has risen. As of the end of last year, the growth rate of the net funding of commercial banks has been lower than the growth rate of weighted assets of credit risk of commercial banks for four consecutive quarters.

  Third, there have been some new changes in recent financing structures.At present, there are two credit data calibers announced by the Bank: social integration caliber and credit revenue and expenditure table diameter. Among themThe scale of credit investment is less than 470 billion yuan less than the launch of the diameter of the credit revenue and expenditure.The company’s creditor’s rights “” increased 86.2 billion and 80.1 billion yuan, respectively, totaling more than 166.3 billion yuan. Combined with the performance of the A -share market since the fourth quarter of last year, this part of the currency investment and credit financing should assume the role of stabilizing the capital market.This change once again shows that in addition to supporting the real economy, commercial banks still indirectly assume the functions of stabilizing the market, that is, financial stability also has a connection with commercial bank expansion.

  Activate inefficient financial resources

  From the above two aspects of consolidating economic recovery and maintaining market stability, commercial banks need to maintain a certain speed of expansion, but even if people can ensure abundant liquidity, commercial banks still face increasingly tight capital and interest rate constraints.The conditions and results of the corresponding table expansion are affected, that is, financial institutions have fallen into the “expansion trap”. On the one hand, the speed of expansion cannot be reduced too fast, otherwise the asset quality of commercial banks will face the risk of deterioration, that is, economic growth and financial stabilityThe quality of assets is determined; on the other hand, the faster the expansion of the table, the tighter the conditions to restrict commercial banks, that is, it is in dilemma.

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